The Bridge District used the Transportation Authority of Marin’s (TAM) countywide travel demand model as the basis for future ferry ridership forecasts. The model includes population, employment, trip purposes, and time of day travel demand by mode (auto, bus, ferry, walk, bike, etc.). Future growth in population and employment in the model is consistent with regional projections from MTC and ABAG, and these growth factors result in increases in total travel demand.

The model predicts increases in Larkspur ferry ridership demand due to:

1)   Increases in overall travel demand between Marin and Sonoma Counties and San Francisco for all modes; and,

2)   Mode shift from driving to taking ferries and buses, due to increases in congestion and travel time delays along US 101 and at the Golden Gate Bridge during the morning peak commute hours.

The forecasting procedure for the Study considers COVID-19 pandemic impacts and tests several work-from-home scenarios. As a result of the forecasting effort, the Bridge District anticipates that in approximately 2033, ferry ridership will be restored to the 2019 pre-COVID level, and that by 2040 ridership could increase by 62% to 74%. As transit recovery from the pandemic is still underway, the Bridge District plans on revisiting these forecasts every few years to incorporate actual ridership levels.

Prior to the pandemic the Bridge District provided the maximum level of ferry service possible (forty-two trips per-day) and the Larkspur Ferry Terminal parking lots were frequently full by 9:30 a.m., compelling potential riders to drive to San Francisco.

Ferry service estimates are based on ridership forecasts, as noted above, and a future ferry fleet comprised of catamaran vessels similar to those currently in use. Additional trips will be provided throughout the day and distributed in a similar pattern as the pre-pandemic schedule, as increases in future ferry ridership are anticipated to align with those patterns. The Study anticipates a maximum of four ferry trips per-hour, representing an increase of one trip per-hour from pre-COVID levels (from three to four in the peak direction), during peak morning and evening commute hours.

Demand estimates for vehicle parking, bicycle parking, transit loading/unloading, passenger drop-off and related services will be based on estimated future ferry ridership and passenger mode of arrival. As a part of this Study, the Bridge District will use existing modes of arrival and a set of transportation demand management (TDM) strategies to develop land access scenarios and corresponding demand estimates. These estimates will be the basis for parking, pedestrian, bike and other recommended landside improvements.

The Bridge District is studying a variety of ways to get to the Larkspur Ferry Terminal without driving a single occupant vehicle, including increasing feeder buses, increased bicycle and pedestrian access, carpool options, and better SMART connectivity. The Study will assess the extent to which these alternative transportation options may reduce parking demand during Environmental Review.

The Study is considering a number of ways to accommodate more cyclists at the Ferry Terminal, including adding secure bicycle parking spaces in the terminal area, converting the existing bike racks outside the terminal to secure bicycle boxes, and incorporating secure bicycle storage into parking structure design.

This will support ongoing work by Transportation Authority of Marin (TAM), the County and the cities and towns of Marin to create a more cohesive, accessible and safer network for bicyclists in southern Marin. For more information about existing and proposed bicycle facilities in Marin County, please visit https://www.tam.ca.gov/bikepedmap/.

The Bridge District is working closely with the County and local cities to identify preferred solutions that will provide improved pedestrian access to the ferry terminal and within the ferry terminal proper, including safety improvements, more direct pedestrian access, and better signage.

Ferry riders will arrive and depart throughout the day, with four boats departing in the peak commute hours and direction. As a point of reference, the Larkspur ferry had three boat departures per hour in the peak commute hour and direction in 2019, before the pandemic.

To assess the impacts of ferry passenger arrivals and departures, traffic analyses will be performed during the Environmental Review (CEQA) process, per the requirements from the City of Larkspur. The traffic analyses will include intersection level of services and traffic delays for the intersections along Sir Francis Drake Boulevard, with and without the proposed project and a scenario with TDM opportunities

The Sonoma Marin Area Rail Transit (SMART) Larkspur Station is approximately a half mile from the Ferry Terminal, which can take 12-17 minutes to walk or 4-5 minutes to bike. In order to provide a better connection to the Larkspur ferry terminal, SMART launched SMART Connect in June 2024 as a one-year pilot project. This on-demand shuttle service connects the SMART Larkspur station to the Golden Gate Ferry Larkspur Terminal and the surrounding Larkspur Landing area. The Bridge District is also studying other innovative ways to provide an easy connection between the ferry terminal and the SMART train station.

For more information about the SMART Connect pilot program visit https://www.sonomamarintrain.org/LarkspurShuttle.

The Study will include plans to provide additional EV charging in the new parking structure.

The Study will include plans to provide secure bicycle parking spaces in the terminal area.  These will include secure bicycle storage in a parking structure and potential conversion of existing bike racks outside the terminal to secure bicycle boxes.

All lighting in the new parking structure will be designed up to modern standards to incorporate technology to create precise lighting plans, including looking at solar panel lighting and directed LED lighting.

For all the area lighting that needs to be replaced (i.e. current light standards in the parking lot), the Bridge District is designing for all new lighting to be dark sky compliant.

Moving the ferry terminal to the deeper channel at San Quentin would require a dedicated, coordinated effort amongst a number of state and local agencies to repurpose use of San Quentin. These stakeholders include the California Bureau of Prisons, Bay Conservation Development Commission, State Lands Commission, County of Marin and others. The Bridge District will work with a lead planning group or agency to investigate this alternative if and when such a project champion emerges.

As no such project champion has emerged and in the absence of a funding plan for this effort, the Bridge District is planning for the future at the current Ferry Terminal location.

In 2023, the Bridge District committed to move toward making their entire fleet multihull (catamaran) boats.  These new ferries will have similar characteristics to current catamarans, providing faster service than the Spaulding-class monohull ferries. As with the existing catamarans, speed restrictions in the channel will remain in effect. 

The US Coast Guard sets the limit for how many bicycles are allowed on each boat. Information on bringing your bike on the ferry is available here: https://www.goldengate.org/ferry/riding-the-ferry/bringing-your-bike/.

The Bridge District is looking at creating more bicycle parking at the Ferry Terminal so that riders can securely lock-up their bikes before boarding the ferry.

The Bridge District’s preliminary wake and shoreline erosion analysis indicates that there is no impact on bottom and shoreline erosion on the surrounding marsh. This analysis, performed in 2022-2023, included wake measurements at multiple locations, collected actual ferry tracks, and simulated ferry passages and wakes in Corte Madera Bay.  Further analysis will be done through the environmental process.

After updating their General Plan Housing Elements as required by the state of California, Marin and Sonoma Counties have been approved to build over 7000 additional housing units over the next six years.  The Larkspur Ferry Terminal is designated as a Public Facility in the City of Larkspur 2020-2040 General Plan, Draft Administrative Update, October 2020, and is not identified as a site to provide housing units at this time.

Residents will need alternatives to driving to work, school, recreational and social activities, and more frequent ferry service would provide a more sustainable option for some. The purpose of this project is to develop future ferry demand forecasts for travel from Larkspur to San Francisco and study how this demand can be met at the Larkspur Ferry Terminal.